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Day 38; It's gonna rev up again
Topic Started: Feb 16 2013, 08:51 AM (35 Views)
Austin
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1 day to the next challenge - and it's anybody's game....

Gotta figure out what to do today to keep everything on track. The big key is to make sure I leave subliminal messages that Austin isn't so smart.... Point out my mistakes.

Holly and I just had a love fest in PM.
Kim and I have them all the time.
Erinn and I haven't in a while - but we know...

Gosh - I love all three of those ladies. All three of them are pure gold - no question. But I can only stand there with one of them.

But I really don't know who I'm going to be standing at the end with....

And I don't think I should know that yet.

But yes - I think I'll be standing there.... And if I get there, I think I win with the ace I have up my sleeve.

You can never get confident - you have to play like each day is your last. But you also have to play within the framework the other players prefer to play in. You have to COMMUNICATE - not just talk. That was Lydia's downfall = she just talked. It became noise to everyone. With a different group of players it may have worked beautifully - but this group of people (at least on the surface) values trust, respect, and loyalty. And according to my theory, successful players play the game the way they are in real like.

So I believe that Erinn, Kim, Holly, and Frosti are as amazing in real life as they are here. That what they profess to value here is what they truly value. And you will get a lot farther with them if you embody that.

And because essentially, I have to tell them all the same thing - you have to find a way to do it where they don't go tell everyone else what you are talking about. If they all knew what I said to each of them - I'd be the next one out...

So let's hope it's working.
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Austin
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This is going to be real interesting....

Erinn wants Holly to go next.

Holly wants Erinn to go next.

Kim and I are just in the middle.

And Frosti just wants to survive as long as he can.

I don't know who my best bet is to vote out.

The intangible of how close Kim and Erinn are is still out there. But learning from Holly today that Kim worked up a final four that didnt include Erinn is interesting. Of course - I'm not sure that Kim ever meant that - that's what is so strange about all of us doing everything we could to keep our numbers... what parts of the outside alliances were real.

I mean - let's tell the truth - from my perspective - they all were. I was just protecting numbers no matter what. Making sure my numbers were there no matter who got voted out.

So the assumption is that they all made decisions the same way.

And we may just have this current love fest going on to make a public display of how loyal we have always been, even though we all worked outside deals to get here...

So - we vote Frosti if I want to GUARANTEE that I make the final 3. And I can tell Erinn lies about Holly and Holly lies abour Erinn just to make sure they don't talk - if I need to. That's a tough thing to resort to at this point - but if I want to make sure I win - I better consider options.

We vote Erinn if I truly believe that Holly and Kim both want a final two with me...

We vote Holly if I truly believe that Erinn and Kim both want a final two with me...

And Frosti is the wild card - the longer he stays the more opportunity he has to sway opinions. Everyone agrees he's the one to take to the end - but no one is really talking about taking him - that's really strange - we are a unique group of players - but we aren't that unique... He's the one that won't get enough votes to win because he hasn't really made any moves.

So - what to do - who to piss off first...

I KNOW Holly is 100% genuine to go final 2
I am pretty sure Kim is
I feel Erinn is also
And Frosti won't want to go up against Holly or Erinn.... he's gotta think I'm his best chance...

Who knows - maybe I've got myself in the position of the loyal follower who can't win and doesn't 'make waves' (sorry for that again Frosti - but it certainly helped me)
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Austin
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This is soooooooooo bizarre...

No one is ever online. Is it really that possible that everyone thinks we're all good. If it possible that everyone feels they are secure for the next vote?

And if so - who is the next vote? That's pretty strange. I feel pretty safe myself. But I won't stop playing - because it could be me on Sunday.

But Frosti gone for 2-3 days.
Kim not around today.
Erinn 'taking yesterday off'

I'm just saying - that's some weird stuff...

Guess I'll write to Holly - haven't seen her today either though.

Can't imagine that she of all people would send such wonderful emails with the intent of sending me packing next. That's what is interesting about this final group. At this point - pulling the wool over someones eyes will get you nothing. Won't get you a vote at the finals and sends someone to the jury with great stories to tell about getting lambasted...

I'll keep my eyes and ears open... see what comes of it.

But it's a pretty strange feeling for final five. You'd think we've all already won...
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Austin
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I wish I had a book of all the Austin-isms in this game....

Not very funny - but just told Erinn I take nothing for granting...

So - Erinn is a dude. Surprising. Until 5 minutes ago - I thought female.
I'd already figured that Kim is a lovely lady.
Frosti, Matty and Sugar are clearly all dudes.
Lydia is a guy.
Holly, I think is a guy - not real sure on that.

Not that any of this matters for the play of the game - just my perceptions - right or wrong. And something to pass the time.

Can you tell I'm bored today - not much going on here at 1:05 pm... (It's not Saturday Night and I'm not surfing YouTube for porn - although I am sure that is what everyone thinks.... hope so...
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Austin
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Because I know you'll ask - the attempt to decipher the sex of the player is important in one way - related to my earlier post - in learning how to COMMUNICATE. Men and women comunicate differently.

Men speak in short sentences. Kinda like sex - get it overwith and go to bed. Get to the point - don't waste my time. The perfect example is Lydia jumping me on Wednesday for why I can't just come out and say it - why all the talk...

Women speak with more emotion. Women have a heart - warm or cold - doesn't matter.

You gotta play the character - but if you can make a determination - by seeing what kind of pictures they post (Ami, Frosti and Sugar) - you can learn how better to relate to them - and speak in a way they are comfortable with. Which makes you more accessible and easier to talk to.

I can write novels in here. But I would be wise to communicate properly out there.
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Austin
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Dilemma - do I tell Holly and Erinn that the other is targetting them. I almost told Holly - but when is the right time - can't have that getting around...

The downside with so few people is it is easier to talk to everyone...

Man - Holly is in messenger for a LONG time.... and we don't have that many messages today.

Eyes are open... scheming underway...
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BROBST
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Austin is a hard worker around here :D
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Austin
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Perhaps - but only time will tell if it is productive...
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Austin
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OK - so driving home from rehearsal I talked myself through the vote configurations. And although I don't necessarily like it - I think I am leaning one way...

Here is the way I think it can play out depending on the vote tomorrow. And in most cases tomorrow's votes dictate the vote after.

I'll rank them in reverse of what I think is the right thing to do.

4. Vote Kim tomorrow. Yeah - this just isn't going to happen. It can't. First - I need her to secure all of my final 3 scenarios. And second - a sudden suggestion to vote her would be so far out in left field no one would understand. No one would do that. So this I don't even see in the realm of possibilities. She's in a great spot!

3. Vote Frosti tomorrow. First of all, I think Frosti is the least likely to win of the other 4. The easiest to defeat. BUT removing Frosti means all the power players are still here - that's dangerous. That said - this should make final 3 a sure deal as Holly will go after Erinn and vice versa meaning Kim and I are set in position to slide right in to the final 3. The question is - can I persuade Erinn and Holly to vote for Frosti instead of each other without tipping my hand...

- If this were successful, then there are options at final four - because Kim and I can make a decision later. That's a nice benefit.

2. Vote Holly tomorrow. Holly is a threat - socially. She's made some interesting moves. But my game has always been predicated on the jury seeing my overall game plan as much more strategic than it looks like on the face of it. A vote for Holly means I have to convince Frosti that the final three is with Kim. A conversation that has been begun at least. So this should be doable - but is it the right thing to do?

- If successful, the next vote probably has to be Frosti. And there's only one reason - I think Erinn and Kim will both take me to the finals with them. I do not believe that those two are as close as everyone else thinks. But it is a dangerous gamble. Not to mention the jury backlash of going to the final three with those two. I can hear Lydia right now. For Austin to sit with those two doesn't tell the jury that any forethought went into this endgame.

1. Vote Erinn tomorrow. Man - I hate to even consider this. But the bottom line Erinn can make an immunity run. Doesn't matter to me because I think she'll take me to the end - but it does matter in who else is there and will they take me. Also, although Erinn and I were close before anyone else - our deal was before any other. I feel closer to Kim and Holly right now - just by a fraction. In addition, a vote for Erinn would send a huge message to the jury that what they thought they knew has always been wrong. And send them scrambling to figure out who really has been in control... Who knows what they would think. No guarantee they would think it's me - and it could end up hurting me.

- If successful, the next vote probably should be Frosti. Again, I think both Holly and Kim would take me to the finals with them over the other. The trust issues will be too odd - and they'll each see the other as a bigger threat over me.

The final four vote could be adjusted. It's just going to come down to trust with Frosti. We don't really talk about all that strategy like the others do. But he has always played a pretty detached game. Pretty smart actually - it's gotten him here. I just need a few more assurances that I get taken to the finals from the other two members of the final 3.

So - my head says Erinn would be the vote.

My heart says Frosti.

But I have four other people to listen to as well before a real decision can be made...
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BROBST
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Austin,Feb 16 2013
06:42:04 PM
In addition, a vote for Erinn would send a huge message to the jury that what they thought they knew has always been wrong.  And send them scrambling to figure out who really has been in control...


Interesting....


And do you think anyone else in the Final 5 has spent as much time thinking about Jury management as well as endgame options?




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Austin
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Holly perhaps. She's the most likely one to be putting it all together.

I realy do think Kim is feeling bad that we have to vote out the people we love. At least that's what she has convinced me - so good on her if she's thinking something else.

Erinn can think that way. I'm not real certain if she is or not.

I just have to hope that in those thoughts I am less of a threat and considered more loyal than their other options.

Otherwise - I'm a dead man.
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