| Where the game goes from here...; Turning paranoia into positivity? | |
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| Topic Started: Jul 19 2017, 11:36 AM (28 Views) | |
| Bubba | Jul 19 2017, 11:36 AM Post #1 |
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I'm going to address a lot of different things in this confessional, regarding both gameplay and how it's been affecting me for the last week. Firstly, the voting bloc I appear to be a part of on the new Dublin tribe seems pretty solid as far as Leann and Amanda being our anticipated first and second vote-outs -- especially after Leann's scrambling from yesterday. So I'm preparing for a step beyond that. There are two scenarios that I believe are likely, following tribal council tomorrow night (regardless of which tribe wins or loses). Scenario A: we all get swapped into two new tribes of seven members each, and that rides out until the merge. Scenario B: we all remain in our current tribes, and just continue vying for tribal immunity until the merge hits. So I have to be thinking about how to protect myself in either of those two likeliest scenarios. In Scenario B, hopefully we'd vote out Leann the first time we'd have to go to tribal council. Then Amanda would be our next potential vote. And hopefully the rest of us then make it to the merge. But Scenario A is a little trickier. Even if Dublin doesn't have to vote out anyone, and we get reshuffled as eight strong...Leann could still flip, tilting the numbers against us in a new tribe of seven. That's especially risky if she has an alliance with Diane and Cirie, and they all end up on a new tribe together with me and any of my alliancemates. Although I could possibly reconnect with Dave and especially Rudy in that type of scenario, Sierra, Julie, and Adam are also unknown quantities to me at this point. And, in the event of a reshuffle, there's just no guarantee of who ends up with who. There's no guarantee that I'd end up reswapped alongside of any combination of Joel, Zeke, Todd, Ozzy, and/or Brooke. And if Leann is in my tribe during such a reshuffle, will she join with any of the surviving Limericks to target me? As much as I hate to say it, I'd almost be hoping that Dublin could lose and we'd have a chance to get rid of Leann before that type of hypothetical swap. But I'm not going to throw the challenge, because I don't want to give my tribemates any easy or convenient extra reasons to vote me out. And, even if I can't advance, I'd still want to see Zeke, Todd, and Ozzy go far. But I want to go far, as well. So there are two key factors in preparing for this possibility. The first is Amanda. And she may very well end up becoming the key to my survival. I need to befriend her and do everything I can to make her feel comfortable. She obviously felt vulnerable going into the immunity challenge last night, even though she was reportedly willing to side with us in targeting Leann. If she has a bond with Sierra (I have no way of knowing whether this is the case or not, of course), Amanda might be a valuable ally for me to have in the event that I'm reshuffled alongside of her into a new tribe. So for the next two days, I'm going to be focusing on ways to try to bond with Amanda...without being outwardly hostile toward Leann in front of me if I don't need to, since I don't want to give Amanda any excuses to come after me. The second component is Leann herself. Although I don't really trust her, I do acknowledge the possibility that I *might* be jumping to conclusions about her. Maybe. But I'm less trusting of her than I am several of the others on my tribe. Still, if I can find a way to endear myself to Leann, that would only help me do everything I can to survive *if* I get reshuffled onto a new tribe with her, prior to the merge. I have to be subtle about it...and be careful what exactly I share with Leann. I don't know if she specifically harbors suspicion toward me (did any of my tribemates squeal on me, to her?), or is Leann just looking to keep advancing, round-by-round? BTW, I fully realize that all twists, swap dates, and merge dates are mapped out ahead of time by Brobst and his creative team. So I'm not under any paranoia that anything I say in these confessionals would have an impact on that predetermined timeline one way or the other. Just mapping out the most plausible alternate scenarios, in my mind. And of course, there's Rudy. I've already posted two "secret codes" for him that hopefully he will see on the community boards. The most recent one was a warning about Leann. The first one was in reference to Brooke, although I saw in hindsight that I'd posted the wrong emoticon (the happy-winking-face and dubious-slanted-mouth-face eerily appear somewhat similar to one another) -- so Rudy may have interpreted it as me saying Brooke was "shady" when I'd wanted to try to tell him I'm working with her. I'm hoping the new "Lucky Charms" post I've set up (wishing Brobst good luck in his SAG/AFTRA audition that he told us all about, the other day) will give me the opportunity to correct my Brooke-message for Rudy sometime between now and the next challenge, and maybe disseminate a couple more of them. I constantly wonder how good ole Rudy is doing "over there." I want him to survive regardless of how many more times Limerick has to attend tribal council. Because all of these relationships I've built could result in some really dynamic gameplay from multiple people if I'm fortunate enough to make it to the merge. Here's the biggest challenge of this game, probably for EVERYONE: you never know who you can trust the most, out of anyone with whom you appear to make alliances. However, if you absolutely trust NO ONE, then you are only isolating yourself and virtually guaranteeing that you will be out of the game sooner rather than later. It's that classic conundrum of how to play smart without overplaying. And if you just randomly decide to trust people (like I did, last season), it ends up being a crap shoot. There's no perfect formula or mathematical equation for this balancing act, unfortunately. That brings me to my paranoia. Not only do I feel I'm playing against 19 other people this season...but, to perhaps an even greater magnitude, I also feel as though I'm "playing against myself." I will elaborate... I regretted many of my actions and lack-of-initiative the first time I played during the Amazon season. That's why I have this internal pressure to redeem myself and go deep into the game (even if I can't make it to the finals; because, realistically, only 10% of our original cast would arrive at the Final Two). So with the anonymity of this game, I really have no definitive theories as to who all of the other players really are (I've ventured a few random guesses, here and there...but I'm really not too preoccupied with that, right now). But I *do* have a definitive vision of what I want to achieve in this game. On top of that, consider all of the inactive players we've had this season whom Brobst has had to remove from the game due to their reported lack of communication. Obviously, all of us who are here to play are similarly disappointed in them -- maybe even peeved at them. We all WANT to play...so the earliest eliminations among even us ACTIVE contestants are going to be all the more devastating. The only two "real" immunity challenges we've had, so far -- the night Denise was voted out, and last night when Tony was voted out -- two worst-case scenarios happened in my life at those precise moments. On the night of the "Feeling Lucky" challenge, I had a teleconference with my fraternity's Alumni Corporation Board (to which I'm desperately trying to get reelected). And guess what was one of our topics of discussion? Elections. And guess when the meeting was scheduled for? 8pm! And guess when our immunity challenge was scheduled to begin? 8:30pm! (although it actually began around 8:45) And guess when our clueless ACB President who can't seem to read social cues decided to suddenly start our discussion about how to run elections next month? Approximately 8:35pm-8:45pm -- while I was frantically F5ing like crazy online waiting for our challenge to begin! Worst. Possible. Timing. Ever. Fortunately, we were able to end the teleconference by 8:46 and I was able to focus on the rest of the challenge itself from that point forward. But it was still disconcerting and threw me off a little. And, Cork barely escaped having to go to tribal council in the showdown against Waterford. As a side note: our ACB "elections" (ha! -- yeah, we'll see how "fair" they actually are...) won't be held until August 5. So that's probably going to be in the back of my mind for the next two weeks. And it's interrelated to what happened (for me) on the night Denise was voted out. Then there was the "Pot of Gold" challenge last night. When I checked my local weather report in the hours leading up to it...thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms, isolated thunderstorms, regular thunderstorms (what the hell *is* the difference between those categories, anyway?). BTW, I really hate living where I live...and I wish I could just move to some part of the country that's the most ideal "weather bubble" in terms of accessibility and natural disaster threats. During the 6-7 hours leading up to last night's immunity challenge, I was on pins-and-needles anticipating that the power at my house might suddenly cut out...especially in the middle of our challenge itself. Or in the middle of a tribal council that I'd have to attend. Murphy's Law. Wouldn't that just be the 'mother...??? I just don't understand why these two specific adverse circumstances had to happen ON THE SAME DAMN NIGHTS when the most was at stake for me, thus far. Especially in light of the "quits" we've had from inactive players on various other nights. So, dear readers, if I've seemed a tiny bit punchy in my recent confessionals...I hope this will give y'all some insight into my stress level throughout. Yes, I'm a complex creature. Deal with it. |
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| BROBST | Jul 19 2017, 11:49 AM Post #2 |
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Well said, my friend! P.S. And great title for this entry, by the way. |
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2:35 AM Jul 11