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My Less-Outrageous 2008 Predictions
Topic Started: Feb 28 2008, 06:55 PM (839 Views)
Jayhawk Bill
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Several sites have posted and discussed Baseball Prospectus's 2008 predictions, including their prediction that the Rays will win 89 games in 2008.

Nate Silver, the guy behind PECOTA, has the best single system for forecasting players' performance available to the casual fan. Still, there's room to question his forecast:

1) The system relies upon arbitrary decisions regarding which players will get how much use;

2) The system relies upon Will Carroll's less-tested Positional Health Reports to predict playing time;

3) The system makes no attempt to assess the effectiveness of managers; and

4) (And this is critical) The system does not evaluate the strength of the farm system, the availability of payroll cash, and the ability and willingness of the FO to make moves to compensate for injuries.

I took the liberty of taking a simple arithmetic mean between the 2008 PECOTA-projected wins and each team's 2007 third-order wins. Third-order wins are wins and losses based upon Pythag given each team's constructed runs scored and allowed based upon actual hits, walks, etc. That serves to temper, for example, the prediction that the Rays will win 89 games--yes, they're good enough to do that well, but there's no track record for their FO ever having made the moves to keep them in a tight pennant race, let alone one versus both New York and Boston.

Here's what I got:

AL East
Red Sox 97
Yankees 96
Blue Jays 83
Rays 82
Orioles 72

AL Central
Indians 91
Tigers 90
Twins 75
White Sox 74
Royals 70

AL West
Angels 87
Athletics 81
Mariners 76
Rangers 74

NL East
Mets 93
Braves 86
Phillies 86
Marlins 75
Nationals 72

NL Central
Cubs 87
Brewers 85
Reds 77
Cardinals 74
Astros 71
Pirates 69

NL West
Dodgers 88
Rockies 87
Diamondbacks 82
Padres 82
Giants 74

As always, YMMV...but there's nothing subjective here, just an attempt to rein in PECOTA to last year's realities.

Enjoy!
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zackboomer
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The Rays will not win 82 games. They will not be 1 game behind the Jays.
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Jayhawk Bill
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zackboomer,Feb 28 2008
06:57 PM
The Rays will not win 82 games. They will not be 1 game behind the Jays.

BP has the Rays ten games ahead of the Blue Jays this year, 89 wins to 79 wins.

If my ranking were somehow subjective, I'd point out that I must be a McGowan fan. ;)
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zackboomer
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The Rays will not finish 3rd for at least 2 more years. The Rays got better, but so did the Jays.
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Edgar For Mayor
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 28 2008
06:55 PM
Several sites have posted and discussed Baseball Prospectus's 2008 predictions, including their prediction that the Rays will win 89 games in 2008.

Nate Silver, the guy behind PECOTA, has the best single system for forecasting players' performance available to the casual fan. Still, there's room to question his forecast:

1) The system relies upon arbitrary decisions regarding which players will get how much use;

2) The system relies upon Will Carroll's less-tested Positional Health Reports to predict playing time;

3) The system makes no attempt to assess the effectiveness of managers; and

4) (And this is critical) The system does not evaluate the strength of the farm system, the availability of payroll cash, and the ability and willingness of the FO to make moves to compensate for injuries.

I took the liberty of taking a simple arithmetic mean between the 2008 PECOTA-projected wins and each team's 2007 third-order wins. Third-order wins are wins and losses based upon Pythag given each team's constructed runs scored and allowed based upon actual hits, walks, etc. That serves to temper, for example, the prediction that the Rays will win 89 games--yes, they're good enough to do that well, but there's no track record for their FO ever having made the moves to keep them in a tight pennant race, let alone one versus both New York and Boston.

Here's what I got:

AL East
Red Sox 97
Yankees 96
Blue Jays 83
Rays 82
Orioles 72

AL Central
Indians 91
Tigers 90
Twins 75
White Sox 74
Royals 70

AL West
Angels 87
Athletics 81
Mariners 76
Rangers 74

NL East
Mets 93
Braves 86
Phillies 86
Marlins 75
Nationals 72

NL Central
Cubs 87
Brewers 85
Reds 77
Cardinals 74
Astros 71
Pirates 69

NL West
Dodgers 88
Rockies 87
Diamondbacks 82
Padres 82
Giants 74

As always, YMMV...but there's nothing subjective here, just an attempt to rein in PECOTA to last year's realities.

Enjoy!

I have no idea how you get the M's only winning 76 games next year...
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Jayhawk Bill
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zackboomer,Feb 28 2008
07:01 PM
The Rays will not finish 3rd for at least 2 more years. The Rays got better, but so did the Jays.

Quoted for posterity.

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I have no idea how you get the M's only winning 76 games next year...


Read the first post in the thread.

BP projected the M's at 73 wins; their third-order wins last year weren't as high as their actual wins.
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zackboomer
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 28 2008
07:13 PM
Quoted for posterity.



Read the first post in the thread.

BP projected the M's at 73 wins; their third-order wins last year weren't as high as their actual wins.

Wow, so if I'm wrong you're going to shove it in my face? Classy.
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Edgar For Mayor
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 28 2008
07:13 PM
Quoted for posterity.



Read the first post in the thread.

BP projected the M's at 73 wins; their third-order wins last year weren't as high as their actual wins.

The M's starting Rotation will win 70 games alone. BP is full of shit.
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Indians and Tigers will win more games.
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Jayhawk Bill
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zackboomer,Feb 28 2008
07:15 PM
Wow, so if I'm wrong you're going to shove it in my face? Classy.

Thanks! :D

Look at how you phrased it: you called it as a statement of fact that the Rays would not finish third for at least two more years. BP is already calling you wrong by ten games for 2008; you're way, way out on a limb.

How would a Rays fan feel? *idunno*
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zackboomer
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 28 2008
07:27 PM
Thanks! :D

Look at how you phrased it: you called it as a statement of fact that the Rays would not finish third for at least two more years. BP is already calling you wrong by ten games for 2008; you're way, way out on a limb.

How would a Rays fan feel? *idunno*

Is BP right always? Rays arn't experienced enough yet. Give it a couple years.
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Bloss
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rays will be in teh wildcard hunt
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DoublePlay

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Are you right always? Even if what they say is somewhere in between that could have the Rays still close to the Jays.

I don't see both the Yankees and Red Sox winning 96 and 97 respectively while the Indians and Tigers barely crack 90, I see the 4 teams all winning about the same amount...between 93 and 96.
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Crushed Optimism
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lol yeah, the Mariners are going to win over ten games less than last season now that we have Erik Bedard and co. Hahaha cooool.
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zackboomer
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DoublePlay,Feb 28 2008
08:54 PM
Are you right always? Even if what they say is somewhere in between that could have the Rays still close to the Jays.

I don't see both the Yankees and Red Sox winning 96 and 97 respectively while the Indians and Tigers barely crack 90, I see the 4 teams all winning about the same amount...between 93 and 96.

No. I'm always right, fool.
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Jayhawk Bill
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DoublePlay,Feb 28 2008
08:54 PM
I don't see both the Yankees and Red Sox winning 96 and 97 respectively while the Indians and Tigers barely crack 90, I see the 4 teams all winning about the same amount...between 93 and 96.

The Indians either got very lucky last year or Eric Wedge really earned his Manager of the Year. The Indians had 88.4 third-order wins but 96 real wins. My algorithm looked at third-order wins and BP PECOTA projections, and BP only forecast 93 wins for the Indians.

Likewise, BP only forecast 91 wins for the Tigers, and they had 88 wins and 88 third-order wins last year.

Put it all together, and neither Detroit nor Cleveland looks as strong as Boston or New York. Certainly the bullpens and the fifth starters for both AL Central teams come up short a bit...I've got to say that I subjectively wouldn't be surprised if either team hit high 90's in wins, but I post the numbers as they fall. *idunno*
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Jayhawk Bill
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Crushed Optimism,Feb 28 2008
08:57 PM
lol yeah, the Mariners are going to win over ten games less than last season now that we have Erik Bedard and co. Hahaha cooool.

BP projected just 73 wins...I actually increased their projection.

FWIW, I voted Mike Hargrove for Manager of the Year in the Internet Baseball Awards. He was 12 games over his third-order win expectation when he quit...after that, Seattle went downhill, both in terms of the race and in terms of D3. Still they finished with 88 wins and 78 third-order wins: their expectation for 2008 starts at 78 wins.

BP expects that King Felix and Bedard are both injury-prone, and they think that there's no star in the vaunted starting batting order, period: Beltre is projected for 20 VORP (two wins over a AAA 3B), and he's the best they've got. Ichiro comes in at 17.3 VORP; Ibanez is at 17.2 VORP; Johjima is only at 10.3. Don't ask about Richie Sexson. :(

If Bedard and Hernandez and Putz stay healthy, you've got a chance. Good luck!

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Crushed Optimism
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I know.

For one, Pecota and BP hate Ichiro every year. Their predictions are never accurate.

I don't really see how Felix is injury prone any more than any other pitcher. He's had minor problems but he's never missed more than what, 2 games?

Bedard is, tho, you're right.

Mike Hargrove sucked. I don't care what you say. Manager of the year should be about the best in game decisions, not about the amount of games won. Unfortunetely, that's impossible because no one person is going to watch every game from every team and evaluate the managerial decisions. But Hargrove did the dumbest shit, including playing Willie Bloomquist too much, not understanding how to platoon, and used relievers terribly. Hellllloooooo Julio Mateo when "you need a guy to induce a ground ball" - Mike Hargrove on Mateo, a FLYBALL PITCHER.
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Jayhawk Bill
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Crushed Optimism,Feb 28 2008
10:06 PM
I know.

For one, Pecota and BP hate Ichiro every year. Their predictions are never accurate.


.312/.355/.404 was Ichiro's 2007 PECOTA projection...he jumped from a .322 2006 BA to a .351 BA last year, and, yeah, every system missed it.

If you're counting on Ichiro to hit over .350 at age 34 then you're likely to be disappointed.

Quote:
 
I don't really see how Felix is injury prone any more than any other pitcher. He's had minor problems but he's never missed more than what, 2 games?


Will Carroll
 
The Big Question: The bloggers from Lookout Landing ask: "Like you couldn't guess where this was going: Felix's season was derailed pretty quickly by a flexor-pronator strain in his throwing elbow. How concerned should we be that his furious delivery may be beginning to get the best of his body?"

The elbow problem last season might have scared Hernandez and Mariners fans, but there's no reason to think that a small elbow problem stops anything absent a significant subsequent change. That the team is talking about loosing past pitch controls on Hernandez's workload at the same time that they're making win-now moves really makes me concerned.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7185

Quote:
 
Mike Hargrove sucked. I don't care what you say. Manager of the year should be about the best in game decisions, not about the amount of games won. Unfortunetely, that's impossible because no one person is going to watch every game from every team and evaluate the managerial decisions. But Hargrove did the dumbest shit, including playing Willie Bloomquist too much, not understanding how to platoon, and used relievers terribly. Hellllloooooo Julio Mateo when "you need a guy to induce a ground ball" - Mike Hargrove on Mateo, a FLYBALL PITCHER.


Yes, but Hargrove kept the Mariners in the race, and their collapse immediately followed his departure. Furthermore, a D3 of +12 is simply incredible: when you're winning 12 more games than your team deserves given your players' work, you're a good manager. Period.
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Rockshu
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The great part about baseball is no one can predict it. Just ask the Rockies.
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