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My Less-Outrageous 2008 Predictions
Topic Started: Feb 28 2008, 06:55 PM (838 Views)
Crushed Optimism
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 28 2008
10:26 PM
Crushed Optimism,Feb 28 2008
10:06 PM
I know.

For one, Pecota and BP hate Ichiro every year. Their predictions are never accurate.


.312/.355/.404 was Ichiro's 2007 PECOTA projection...he jumped from a .322 2006 BA to a .351 BA last year, and, yeah, every system missed it.

If you're counting on Ichiro to hit over .350 at age 34 then you're likely to be disappointed.



Will Carroll
 
The Big Question: The bloggers from Lookout Landing ask: "Like you couldn't guess where this was going: Felix's season was derailed pretty quickly by a flexor-pronator strain in his throwing elbow. How concerned should we be that his furious delivery may be beginning to get the best of his body?"

The elbow problem last season might have scared Hernandez and Mariners fans, but there's no reason to think that a small elbow problem stops anything absent a significant subsequent change. That the team is talking about loosing past pitch controls on Hernandez's workload at the same time that they're making win-now moves really makes me concerned.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7185



Yes, but Hargrove kept the Mariners in the race, and their collapse immediately followed his departure. Furthermore, a D3 of +12 is simply incredible: when you're winning 12 more games than your team deserves given your players' work, you're a good manager. Period.

I wouldn't doubt it for Ichiro. If anyone ages well, it's gonna be Ichiro. Name a player that works harder and stretches longer than Ichiro.

The Mariners collapse had almost nothing to do with Mike Hargrove's departure. You're assuming by the record that the M's collapsed right after he left, but in reality, the Mariners were in it, and in it seriously, until some time in September.

If you think the Mariners were good because of Mike Hargrove's influence, you're greatly mistaken. No coach has that much control over their team to control almost a half season of playoff caliber baseball. At the same time, no coach can throw it away just like that. What about 2006, then? Why was Hargrove terrible there and then all of the sudden he became a huge facor in Mariner success in 2007?
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Edgar For Mayor
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 28 2008
10:26 PM
Crushed Optimism,Feb 28 2008
10:06 PM
I know.

For one, Pecota and BP hate Ichiro every year. Their predictions are never accurate.


.312/.355/.404 was Ichiro's 2007 PECOTA projection...he jumped from a .322 2006 BA to a .351 BA last year, and, yeah, every system missed it.

If you're counting on Ichiro to hit over .350 at age 34 then you're likely to be disappointed.



Will Carroll
 
The Big Question: The bloggers from Lookout Landing ask: "Like you couldn't guess where this was going: Felix's season was derailed pretty quickly by a flexor-pronator strain in his throwing elbow. How concerned should we be that his furious delivery may be beginning to get the best of his body?"

The elbow problem last season might have scared Hernandez and Mariners fans, but there's no reason to think that a small elbow problem stops anything absent a significant subsequent change. That the team is talking about loosing past pitch controls on Hernandez's workload at the same time that they're making win-now moves really makes me concerned.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7185



Yes, but Hargrove kept the Mariners in the race, and their collapse immediately followed his departure. Furthermore, a D3 of +12 is simply incredible: when you're winning 12 more games than your team deserves given your players' work, you're a good manager. Period.

Ichiro is a different kind of player.
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Rockshu,Feb 28 2008
10:32 PM
The great part about baseball is no one can predict it. Just ask the Rockies.

I'm going to completely agree with you on this one.
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hankaaron44
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I don't see how the D-Backs will take any steps back and win only 82 games next season, 6 behind the projected division winning Dodgers. Yes, I understand that the addition of Andruw Jones had a lot of do with it. But as you said, the projections do no take into account the strength of a team's farm system.

This is where I think my theoretical thinking will complement your mathematical thinking on the Research Team. If Arizona was comfortable with trading away a prospect in Carlos Quentin, and the league leader in saves, Jose Valverde, they must have something still left on the big club or down in the farm to replace those guys. The D-Backs would not have made a move for Dan Haren's services if they had not planned to make a run at the NL West. I do expect with more experience, players like Stephen Drew, Tracy Reynolds and the first baseman (who's name escapes me at the moment) will build on last season and seasons past and improve. I do not think that it is a far fetched idea to think that the D-Backs will win the NL West, the Pennant and go to the World Series.
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Edgar For Mayor
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I think projections are BS as it is. They make baseball less fun, and less magical. Plus, those who said you can't predict baseball are right.
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zackboomer
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Yeah. How about we let the season play out as it may.
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Edgar For Mayor,Feb 28 2008
11:42 PM
I think projections are BS as it is. They make baseball less fun, and less magical. Plus, those who said you can't predict baseball are right.

then why would you make the outrageous thread but think this is dumb? youre only mad because it doesn't project the M's to do well.
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Jayhawk Bill
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hankaaron44,Feb 28 2008
11:40 PM
I don't see how the D-Backs will take any steps back and win only 82 games next season, 6 behind the projected division winning Dodgers.

The heck with third-order wins. Let's look at runs scored and runs allowed for the 2007 Diamondbacks:

Runs Scored: 712
Runs Allowed: 732

The Diamondbacks shouldn't even have finished at .500: they scored 20 fewer runs than they allowed. Bob Melvin won Manager of the Year, and he deserved it.

Back to third-order wins, the 2007 Diamondbacks had just 78...roughly what you'd expect for a team that scored twenty fewer runs than it allowed.

BP predicted 86 wins; regressing to 2007's third-order wins yielded the 82 win estimate.

Quote:
 
Yes, I understand that the addition of Andruw Jones had a lot of do with it. But as you said, the projections do no take into account the strength of a team's farm system.

This is where I think my theoretical thinking will complement your mathematical thinking on the Research Team. If Arizona was comfortable with trading away a prospect in Carlos Quentin, and the league leader in saves, Jose Valverde, they must have something still left on the big club or down in the farm to replace those guys.


Who's left? I see Parker, Parra and Scherzer--below that you're not in the top 100 prospect range, I think.

The D-Backs system was strong, but they traded away a lot to get Haren. They're out of the BA Top Ten Organizations. I don't see their MiLB system as an unusually good asset any more--YMMV.

Quote:
 
The D-Backs would not have made a move for Dan Haren's services if they had not planned to make a run at the NL West. I do expect with more experience, players like Stephen Drew, Tracy Reynolds and the first baseman (who's name escapes me at the moment)


Conor Jackson

Quote:
 
...will build on last season and seasons past and improve. I do not think that it is a far fetched idea to think that the D-Backs will win the NL West, the Pennant and go to the World Series.


I wouldn't call it far-fetched, either, at least given that the average chance is 3.33% for each team. ;)

But it's more than that. BP has them second to the Dodgers, 2 GB. I show them third behind the Dodgers and Rockies, 6 GB. The standard deviation on wins vs. third-order wins was about 5.5 last year...seven teams had at least six wins more or less than one would have expected IF THEIR FINAL STATS EXCEPT RUNS, WINS AND LOSSES HAD BEEN KNOWN ON OPENING DAY. Think about that--knowing every pitcher's hits allowed, strikeouts, bases and balls and IP, and knowing every hitter's PA, OBP and SLG, seven teams would still have been over six wins away from their expected final stats.

When these rankings show Red Sox and Yankees, Tigers and Indians, and Dodgers and Rockies within a game of each other in their respective divisions, that's darn close to predicting a tie. Any team within six games of a division lead or a wild card berth is certainly in the mix.

And every team starts tied for first on Opening Day. *beer*

The Diamondbacks should contend in 2008. This system shows them as weaker than the Dodgers and the defending NL Champion Rockies, and I'd agree with that. They'll still, I hope, contend.

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KeepTheFaith,Feb 29 2008
06:38 AM
then why would you make the outrageous thread but think this is dumb? youre only mad because it doesn't project the M's to do well.

Outrageous predictions are fun, and never going to happen. Look asshole. I don't know what your beef is with me...but its needs to stop now.


And before your spout off about you have none...think about it. You only reply to my post with negative things to say.
So either stop replying to my post or find something useful to say.
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KeepTheFaith
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Edgar For Mayor,Feb 29 2008
12:39 PM
Outrageous predictions are fun, and never going to happen. Look asshole. I don't know what your beef is with me...but its needs to stop now.


And before your spout off about you have none...think about it. You only reply to my post with negative things to say.
So either stop replying to my post or find something useful to say.

Stop making illogical posts and I'll stop criticizing them.
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Jayhawk Bill
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BTW, BP started posting its ranking of MLB MiLB systems today, and the Diamondbacks ranked 19th, a bit below average. They depleted their system in the Haren trade, and several prospects graduated to MLB last year, dropping them from 6th to 19th.
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KeepTheFaith,Feb 29 2008
03:04 PM
Edgar For Mayor,Feb 29 2008
12:39 PM
Outrageous predictions are fun, and never going to happen. Look asshole. I don't know what your beef is with me...but its needs to stop now.


And before your spout off about you have none...think about it. You only reply to my post with negative things to say.
So either stop replying to my post or find something useful to say.

Stop making illogical posts and I'll stop criticizing them.

Right. Stop replying to me now.
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webgem924
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This is more outrageous :P
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 24 2008
10:35 AM
Jon Papelbon leads MLB in STFU capability.

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Bloss
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Jayhawk Bill,Feb 29 2008
04:16 PM
BTW, BP started posting its ranking of MLB MiLB systems today, and the Diamondbacks ranked 19th, a bit below average. They depleted their system in the Haren trade, and several prospects graduated to MLB last year, dropping them from 6th to 19th.

u got a link for that?
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Bloss,Feb 29 2008
05:10 PM
u got a link for that?

Yes!

Do you? :P

***

OK, enough teasing. The quote:

Quote:
 
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year's Ranking: 6
Why They're Down: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Miguel Montero, Mark Reynolds, and Micah Owings arrived in the big leagues; much of what's left was sent to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal.
Strengths: The '07 draft adds arms of both the power and finesse types; some very athletic position players.
Weaknesses: There's very little power left in the system; there will be a gap while they wait for the young arms to develop.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Up slightly. Six of their Top 11 Prospects begin this year in A-ball, so it's more of a glass half-full thing.


The link:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7188
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Bloss
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Ah its one of those stuipd member sites
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Jayhawk Bill
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Bloss,Feb 29 2008
06:14 PM
Ah its one of those stuipd member sites

Not quite. It's a paid membership site, but most members aren't stupid. :rolleyes:
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Luff
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There is no way the Marlins will win the same amount of games as the Twins.
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Crushed Optimism
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dude ktf watch out u guys r beefin. hes gonna beat u up man b careful
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KeepTheFaith
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Crushed Optimism,Feb 29 2008
08:08 PM
dude ktf watch out u guys r beefin. hes gonna beat u up man b careful

sry
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