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Manny a Dodger, Bay a Red Sox
Topic Started: Jul 31 2008, 03:53 PM (1,479 Views)
Rockshu
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Do you even know how your statistics are calculated?
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Rockshu
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By the way, KTF posted a link that gave these statistics:

Fielding Stats:

Fielding Bible (Courtesy SoSH):

Bay -1
Ramirez -15

RZR:

Bay .864
Ramirez .817

Last time I checked, -1 is better than -15, and .864 is bigger than .817. Science says I'm right.
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terrorist of sports
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plus youre an al east fan its not like you havent seen plenty of games with him in it.
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Rockshu,Aug 1 2008
03:46 PM
By the way, KTF posted a link that gave these statistics:

Fielding Stats:

Fielding Bible (Courtesy SoSH):

Bay -1
Ramirez -15

RZR:

Bay .864
Ramirez .817

Last time I checked, -1 is better than -15, and .864 is bigger than .817. Science says I'm right.

Honestly, I do some nerdy spreadsheeting, but I've given up on trying to deeply understand defensive metrics. There are a million of them, and it seems that each of them is greatly overcompensating for a factor that another lacks.

ZR numbers are gross. Of what is available, UZR (which actually isn't fully available anymore, if I'm not mistaken) makes the best attempt at including park factors, but I would estimate (again, with a very primitive knowledge of the formula) that it only quantifies somewhere between 30 and 40% of defensive skill. I prefer RAA, but without more room for adjustments, that's still probably no better than 45%. That sucks, but it seems like the best available. The problem is that defensive metrics will always rely on judgement. With offense, it's playing concrete percentages. Defensively, we're making our own attempts to quantify weights of zones/positions. Basically, if anyone knows anything about adjusted RAA, help me.

As far as those numbers go, are those career numbers or are they solely based on this season? I'm assuming this season, because I'm thinking that what you're calling fielding bible is the +/- method, and over his career Manny is hundreds in the red. That stat kind of sucks, though. It just measures like how many flashy plays you made in really arbitrary areas of the field.

Again, RZR is ok, as far as defensive metrics go, but it still depends on really faulty weight assignments to areas with arbitrary cutoffs. It's totally hypothetical, but it could be that Bay has made the exact same plays Manny has over the course of the season, but five feet away from the area that Manny made him, and that would account for the difference between the two. Again, there is like >1% chance that has happened, but that gets the point across.

Manny has an RAA of 2. Bay's is -19. Park adjustments are left out, but there is no way they make that much of a difference.
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Rockshu
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I don't know what any of the defensive sabermetrics stand for or mean, but I watch 20-30 Red Sox games every year, and 10-15 Pirates games, and based upon my personal opinion Jason Bay is a more capable fielder. He takes decent routes to the ball and has a good arm. I'm pretty sure he came up as a right fielder a couple years ago, and Manny certainly never had the arm to play right field, ever.
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Rockshu,Aug 1 2008
05:24 PM
I don't know what any of the defensive sabermetrics stand for or mean, but I watch 20-30 Red Sox games every year, and 10-15 Pirates games, and based upon my personal opinion Jason Bay is a more capable fielder. He takes decent routes to the ball and has a good arm. I'm pretty sure he came up as a right fielder a couple years ago, and Manny certainly never had the arm to play right field, ever.

But he's not a right fielder, so that doesn't matter at all.

The original point I made about this was basically stating that I was surprised that Manny has actually been better defensively than Bay this season. Now, that is based on several variations of one metric. It is impossible to come to any definite conclusion in comparing them defensively. But even if Bay has been better this year, I'm saying that the difference isn't nearly as great as people are making it out to be. Manny isn't going to go to LA and become such a complete defensive suckfest because of the additional space he has to cover that his offensive ability no longer makes up for it. Really, I'd be more concerned with his offensive numbers, moving from one of the best hitter's parks in baseball to by far the worst stadium to hit in.
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Mets Rule,Aug 1 2008
12:11 PM
Bay played in Pittsburgh, with no media, a small-market team, and a shitty team at that, for his entire career. He's now being put in the middle of a pennant race, a large-market team with a lot of media and the fans expect a lot. I seriously wouldn't be surprised if he tanks.

Throw all that mental shit away because Bay is Canadian. We don't pussy out because of media.
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jaysdude09,Aug 2 2008
06:49 PM
Throw all that mental shit away because Bay is Canadian. We don't pussy out because of media.

LOLBedard
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Was he born in Quebec? That might explain quite a few things relating to his retardation.
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oeshbach,Aug 1 2008
01:36 PM
Manny's horrible defense is going to stand out even more since he doesn't play at Fenway.

I think Manny's D is underrated. Yeah the plays off are concerning, but they're rarer than ESPN wants you to think they are and he's got a strong, accurate arm and quick release that makes him valuable, he's clearly not a fast fielder and his range isn't good, but he's better than you'd think if you never see him play.
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Luff
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Dodgers just stole Manny, great deal. They'll win NL West.
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redsoxabstract,Aug 1 2008
03:23 PM
Rockshu,Aug 1 2008
03:08 PM
redsoxabstract,Aug 1 2008
01:09 PM
Rockshu,Aug 1 2008
12:34 PM
redsoxabstract,Aug 1 2008
11:14 AM
Pressure is so hilariously overrated. Especially for hitters. The guy is a professional baseball player. He isn't in fifth grade. I don't think he's going to get up to the plate and think "ZOMG PEEPZ IZ WATCHIN N NOW DIS MEENS SUMTIN!@" and completely fail. He'll be fine.

And just a weird tidbit, if you look analyze this trade purely as the Red Sox replacing Manny with Bay, the biggest downgrade they take is on defense, where they go from Manny's surprising +2 RAA to Bay's ridiculously bad -19. Offensively, they really don't take much of a hit at all.

Manny is not better than Bay on defense, are you retarded?

I think it's a little more retarded to base Manny's overall defensive play based on Manny being Manny highlights you see on Sportscenter rather than a shit ton of stats that rate him as an above average defensive player.

Manny Ramirez plays in LF of Fenway Park, the easiest place in baseball to defend. I can admit, Manny knows the bounces of the Monster better than anyone, but beyond that he's got nothing. Horrible jumps on balls, he doesn't know how to run, and his arm is barely a notch above Johnny Damon's.

So I'm assuming you've watched every play he's made this season.

Because there are park adjusted stats that say otherwise. Defensive metrics have their faults, but I still trust them a lot more than evaluating a few plays with the naked eye. Manny, this season, has been a lot better than Bay. Bay is by several counts, the worst defensive left fielder this side of Adam Dunn.

Where does Ibanez rank compared to Bay, Manny, Dunn... those guys?
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Crushed Optimism,Aug 4 2008
12:34 PM
Where does Ibanez rank compared to Bay, Manny, Dunn... those guys?

Bay is at -19. Ibanez is at -11.

Right now, Dunn is at -4, which is by far his best season in left. Over the past four seasons, he's been between -15 and -20.
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All those different defensive rankings are confusing and conflicting. I have found a few of them, such as the Fielding Bible's plus/minus system to be somewhat accurate, but nothing really works well.

Bay, Dunn, Ibanez, and Manny? Bay obviously is the best of those four, with Ibanez, Dunn, and Manny trailing in that order.

Manny underrated? Defensively? No. I've watched almost every Sox game with him in left field and he sucks. And yes he played the wall well, but does that make him good at Fenway? No, he sucks there too. And his arm is average at best.
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mpic92,Aug 4 2008
04:46 PM
All those different defensive rankings are confusing and conflicting. I have found a few of them, such as the Fielding Bible's plus/minus system to be somewhat accurate, but nothing really works well.

Bay, Dunn, Ibanez, and Manny? Bay obviously is the best of those four, with Ibanez, Dunn, and Manny trailing in that order.

Manny underrated? Defensively? No. I've watched almost every Sox game with him in left field and he sucks. And yes he played the wall well, but does that make him good at Fenway? No, he sucks there too. And his arm is average at best.

The +/- system still leaves a lot up to judgement. The only real weakness in RAA is that it doesn't account for guys playing different positions. Obviously, a shortstop with a -5 RAA is going to do a lot more damage than a left fielder with a -5 RAA, but as long as you're comparing players at one position, it is probably the best indicator.
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. I thought Manny needed to go, but I never thought it would happen mid season, even though it had to for us to get anything of value in return for him. Left field at Fenway is always an adventure, but if Bay can learn to play the monster fairly well, I think he's comparable to Ramirez-- he might even be an upgrade. I say that not only because of Manny's history of on field antics, but the fact that they sometimes came at the expense of the team. When we were in Anahiem, it was ugly, but at least Manny showed up. This current homestand, its like he's phoned it in already, and you can not tolerate that in the midst of a pennant race. So in a way, Epstien's sending a message to his team as well as changing personnel.

The Manny for Bay deal is more or less a wash in my opinion, but that's not the whole trade. We also shipped off reliever Craig Hansen to the Bucks. Hansen- to be honest, sucks, so you'd normally be happy to see him go. This confuses me though because our bullpen is already one of the worst, if not the worst in the league. True, we could still deal for a reliever through waivers, though its not probable that we would get a real quality one. And yes, its true that we have some great young starting pitching in the minors, and bringing the kids up and sticking them in the 'pen would help out, look at Masterson for example. While its always a roll of the dice, I don't think blowing up the 'pen and starting all over is a good idea, especially mid season.
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