| BONUS FEATURES; Jury Commentary | |
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| Topic Started: Jul 29 2013, 01:49 PM (321 Views) | |
| Romeo | Jul 29 2013, 01:49 PM Post #1 |
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My feelings about being a part of the jury and not still in the game...![]() So, now that I've had time to settle in and digest my own fate, I figured I would start a thread where we could collectively discuss the game as it continues and builds towards its conclusion. So without further ado... ![]() What, from my limited and biased perspective, are these players best paths to winning the game? What would I be doing if I were each player? What are they thinking? Why are they making the decisions they are making? Like my confessional, I will run down my own version of the Power Rankings with (drum roll please).... THE A LISTERS! These are the players I feel like are playing strong games and are in a good position to win the game. ![]() ![]() From what I know, it would be hard not to put these two at the top of the game right now. I don't really care for Apollo's game, but that doesn't mean he couldn't win. He's been in the cross-hairs since the merge, and now seems to be in a position of control outside of Wes constantly gunning for him. He took his foot off the pedal, sat back, and let the game take place around him. Not a bad play, but his cold shoulder approach to me was not appreciated, and it makes him come across as more a follower. Dan on the other hand did a really good job of playing up the fact we could still work together - up until I called him out on it directly. He's sly, always has been, so I don't know what has to happen for him to leave the game at this point. I believe these two have a strong connection, in some form, with Trip, and you (Max) believe that they have a F3 with Laurie. I also have to believe Atreyu has fit himself in there in some way. That gives them more than enough control, and options, this round and going forward should they be able to keep everyone in-line - a tough task, no doubt. IF they are sincere in going to the end together, I would use this round to cut out Wes - a wild card - or Laurie - a challenge threat. I would assume those 2 are next in-line to leave unless Wes is being protected because he can't win in the end - same goes for Rose. However, I wouldn't want Wes and his challenge ability hanging around any longer than necessary. That's a player that can blow up the best laid plans. Depending on how close they actually are with Laurie, I would guess their ideal F5 is them + Trip + Laurie/Atreyu + Rose. That seems like a make-up they can control. Whether they do it or not is beside the point right now. THE B-LISTERS Could win but need to make a move or two to get there ![]() I put Atreyu here out of respect. I'm not positive he wasn't playing me the round I went home, but either way, the guy is good. He is a great communicator and while I really have very little read on his actual standing, or what his long-term agenda is, I do feel like he has the right abilities to make a move to position himself to win the game. Lots of variables I am unsure of as he was a player I only really got to know my last two rounds, but I would be shocked to see him go out quietly, if he goes out at all. ![]() I begrudgingly put Trip here. I do think he is really close with Apollo, and Dan as well in some order. But I'm not positive how much everything that went down last night might have hurt his game, especially with Laurie and Rose, who seemed to think she was very tight with Trip. I could very easily see Trip make it to the end of the game - he is good - but I also think he's played a bit needlessly dirty. I could see myself voting for him at the end - again so much can still happen, including a FTC performance - but I just have a sour taste in my mouth with regards to his game. It's not like I felt super close with him, or that he owed me anything, but I just didn't like the blatant BS from the Lucy boot onwards. If you're going to BS me, at least put some effort into it. C-LISTERS I just don't know enough to place them higher, but what I do know, they could still have a chance at this ![]() Laurie is a regret of mine. I feel like she was being genuine with me at the merge and I just kind of blew it due to thinking I had better and more options than I really did have. I missed that opportunity. Where does she stand now with Max gone? I don't know. She definitely put herself out there last night, even asking to be voted out - which could have just been for show - but I also think she could find a way forward. There are still some pieces on the board, seemingly, that could be used to shake things up, and I would assume her relationship with Trip, if they are both smart players, is still salvageable. Plus, she can always win immunities. If Laurie made it to the end, I could definitely see her winning. So perk up those breasts and get to work dear. D-LISTERS End or not - they do not have a chance of winning in my opinion ![]() Sorry had to find a place to use that GIF and I am sure people have felt that way with regards to good ole' Wes at times. ![]() I actually quite like Wes. I always had a soft spot for him, even if he wasn't someone I wanted to really work with. Alas, and sorry Max, I was never going to vote for a returning player. Wes could win every immunity until the end, blindside major players left and right, and I'd still not vote for him. I just don't feel someone who was fairly voted out earlier in the game and was essentially allowed to be immune for 5 straight tribals (3 on Jedi prior to twist, and 2 votes he was immune for upon merge) before he could be voted out again, is worthy of a win. Just my own personal philosophy of Survivor. ![]() Oh, that's not Rose? Sorry, one second.... ![]() Listen, I don't think Rose is a bad player. I think she just got caught in a whirlwind at the merge and things didn't work out for her, and her game went down the drain. She's sweet and likable and plays that up quite nicely. But she's slipping by, not because of her actual merits or strategy, but because of their being bigger fish to fry. Now, that's a viable path to the end, and players have won before by just surviving - but unless she really pulls something shocking off, I cannot see a scenario where Rose sits at the end other than as the selected easy opponent by one of the other players. I'm not sure she has been clued in on a round since the merge - but credit to her for surviving where her allies fell by the wayside. I am hoping she can pull something off. I'm just not betting on it. Brobst cannot engage us but so much without giving anything away, but I look forward to hearing your take Max, as I am sure you have a different perspective and view on things. The fun is only beginning. Cannot wait to see who will ultimately...
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| BROBST | Jul 29 2013, 02:24 PM Post #2 |
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BONES FEATURES!!!!! YEAHHHHHHH!!!!!!!! THIS DVD IS AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!
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| Romeo | Jul 29 2013, 10:36 PM Post #3 |
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Brett, this is how I imagine you must be during these games - especially THIS one
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| BROBST | Jul 30 2013, 01:45 AM Post #4 |
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HA!!!!! Yep, that's about right :lol: |
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| Romeo | Jul 30 2013, 12:24 PM Post #5 |
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So Brobst, is looking like ![]() OR ![]() tonight? |
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| Maximus | Jul 30 2013, 01:15 PM Post #6 |
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POWER RANKINGS Instead of listing, like Romeo did (very nice conformity to theme, btw), I'm going with a more traditional Power Rankings methodology. These are the players, in order from lowest to highest, who are best position, IMO, to win this game. #7 - Rose Here I agree with you - she's pretty much out of the loop and being used as a spare vote right now. Because of that, she's still got a couple more TCs in her, but ultimately she has no real hope of getting to the end of this thing, and even less hope of a Jury majority. Worst of all, none of her connections have been firm since her ladies left the game. The closest she has is Atreyu, and since he's pretty much being used for the same purpose she is, he's not a lot of help to her. #6 - Laurie She has the potential to work closely with Dan and Apollo, and that might save her for one TC, but ultimately she's used up her capital. The fact that she voted for Trip on Sunday against the will of the tribe is going to hurt her ability to get back inside of any real alliance. #5 - Wes Although I'm certain he and Trip have been working together for awhile, he has zero shot of winning at FTC, even if Trip is willing to let him get there. As the numbers whittle down, Trip will find it much easier to use Dan and Apollo to go after Apollo's nemesis. Since Rose is likely to follow along, Wes could be out tonight, but definitely won't last past F5. #4 - Atreyu His position is much better than it looks. He's a wind-walker, and will vote with the majority whenever possible, but he's strongly connected to Apollo, enough that IF Apollo and Dan get wise, they'll vote out Trip tonight, which greatly increases his chances. I think when we hear how he's bent in the breeze without ever breaking, this jury is going to be impressed by his flexibility. #3 - Apollo For all the reasons you cited, Romeo, he's going to have a hard time convincing a jury that his game was all that great. He's stayed pretty true to Daniel, and that MIGHT get him to FTC if Trip doesn't wreck him first. But the likeliest way for him to get there is sitting beside Daniel, and very few will vote for him against Daniel. #2 - Daniel His game has been pretty honest, with just enough flexibility to help him change with the tides. He's never given up any information he hasn't absolutely had to. His game isn't dramatic, it isn't bold, but it is solid as Gibraltar. #1 - Trip If Daniel's game is boring, then Trip's is a blockbuster. I can't speak for what went on with him pre-merge, but since he's been here he's played alliances against each other, and come across again and again as the hero, until his next betrayal. If certain people get wise to him on time, he won't make it to F2. But if he does, and he comes clean on all I've seen him do, hands down he'll be the player of the year. |
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| Romeo | Jul 30 2013, 03:34 PM Post #7 |
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I agree Max that if Trip can make it to the end and own up to his own duplicitous ways, he probably wins going away. I wasn't upset with him for the moves he made - he played me at the merge by getting me to distrust you and Apollo, planting seeds of distrust - but rather just that he so poorly worked with me after the fact. This is a player I talked through scenarios and strategy at great length with, especially at Jedi, so I was insulted how he played with me after the Lucy boot - a player he had wanted to keep at Jedi more than me. You have to imagine he's caught some heat from your last tribal though right? I doubt we will see him join us tonight, but it also wouldn't outright shock me. Backing up, I'm not sold on how close Atreyu and Apollo really were. I think Atreyu would have genuinely voted Apollo with me if the numbers were there. Could be wrong though. |
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| Romeo | Jul 30 2013, 03:45 PM Post #8 |
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And - from the outside looking in - doesn't it make a world of sense for Rose, Atreyu, Laurie and Wes to team up this round and take out one of the three Original Bonsai men? What sense can there be in letting them comprise 50% of the F6, even if they aren't unbreakable? A perceived threat is reason enough. Rose and Atreyu both have connections to Laurie, and Wes is perpetually on the outside. They all gain something by that move, even if they don't want to stick it out together - the hard part would be agreeing on who to go after. You have to throw away your perceptions of who you'd LIKE to play the game with, and go with the players that you need to play the game with and need you to play with them. |
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| Maximus | Jul 30 2013, 08:05 PM Post #9 |
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We're coming from two separate assumptions, Romeo: Yours is that Trip, Apollo and Dan are working together. Mine is that Trip only works from himself, and that Apollo and Dan know this. Which of us is right is going to decide how the next couple tribals go. |
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| Romeo | Jul 30 2013, 08:20 PM Post #10 |
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Woof - what a boring tribal? Who do you think is joining us? Laurie? |
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| Maximus | Jul 30 2013, 08:22 PM Post #11 |
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Laurie seems like the obvious choice, but I think it's a tossup between Trip and Apollo. Between those two... I'm going to say Trip. I'm not convinced of it, I just think Atreyu will vote with Apollo on this one. |
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| Maximus | Jul 30 2013, 08:55 PM Post #12 |
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Guess I was half-way there. Ready to greet Apollo - BROBST! Get him in here! |
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| Apollo | Jul 30 2013, 11:55 PM Post #13 |
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Atreyu and I always got along but I never had any doubt that he would vote me out. Atreyu is a follow the numbers sort of player...if you want him on your side you have to have the numbers to back it up. Dan, Trip and I were working together for most of the game. But I always knew that Trip didn't like pairs and clearly Dan and I were a pair. I knew at some point he would try to split us up...I just always figured it would be Dan that he would target over me. I should have realized that Trip always seems to go after whoever is closer to him. I tried to do as much damage to him as possible...hopefully the remaining players will take note and deal with Mr. Trip. If not they will be joining us soon. |
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| Romeo | Jul 31 2013, 12:53 PM Post #14 |
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Commenting on what Max was talking about in the Apollo Welcome Thread. After the way the past few votes have gone down, do you really think Trip can just keep flipping people against each other? Atreyu was more than on to Trip even before I left. Laurie obviously knows what he is doing. And at this point, shouldn't Dan and Wes? I feel like Wes is just coherent enough to make Trip his new Apollo. When a player boots - in 4 straight tribals - people he was close to at various stages of the game and in varying degrees - do you really still trust him? Or could he survive because a few players think he's made enough enemies on the jury where he's now a Russell of sorts? I hope not - Trip probably would have a very good shot to win if he made the end depending on events and FTC performances, etc. I don't know. I would think this would be a good round to go after him. He's eliminated some people that were actually loyal to him. Which takes me to what you were saying Apollo and Trip and his fear of pairs.....what do you think his logic was in eliminating me? Do you think if I had appeared more "controllable" after the Lucy boot that he would have steered things in a different direction? Or was that always his intent? |
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| Romeo | Jul 31 2013, 01:04 PM Post #15 |
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