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BONUS FEATURES; Jury Commentary
Topic Started: Jul 29 2013, 01:49 PM (323 Views)
Maximus
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Good question! This is the kind of breakdown I enjoy doing!

First of all, Rose and Atreyu's best move is determined by what the others wind up doing, so my assessment of their best moves will come last.

Trip: Working with Wes, pull in Atreyu and Rose to vote Laurie. Dan's a solid player with decent relationships with everybody, but Laurie is much better at working individuals, at making them trust her. Laurie is the one who can break him at F5, so she would have to be his target, depending on what Dan has been doing since Apollo's boot.

Wes: Like Trip, his best chance at winning this game is sitting next to Rose at F2, and that means holding onto Atreyu long enough to hold the three of them as a block at F5. Though he's been working with Trip for the last several votes, like him he's a flipper, and won't be afraid to cut Trip loose. However, also like Trip, he'll recognize the danger of the Dan/Laurie pair, which complicates the F5 vote, so he'll need to vote with Trip to cut Laurie out of the herd.

Laurie: Stick with what she does best - form lasting relationships. Stick with Dan, hold onto Atreyu, and work with them both to get Rose on-board for voting Trip. Lock Atreyu in - which, although is against his game to date, is still his best move - to a F3 with her and Dan.

Dan: Like Laurie, he's a loyalty player and he does his best work in that role. Since he's likely to be Trip's target, he's got to get him out of the way. He knows Laurie would be on-board with that, and he'd need to trust her to make sure Atreyu and Rose are solid. Otherwise, keep his head down this round and hope Laurie can pull Atreyu into a F3 with him going into F5.

Atreyu: He'll want to go with the numbers, but this is an even-number Final. That means he NEEDS to work with Rose to make that happen. In this way he'll be able to control the vote for the first time since the merge. Since he'll be aware of the Trip/Wes pair AND the Dan/Laurie pair, he can decide which way he wants to go. And, as previously mentioned, his best bet is to be sitting next to Wes or Rose at F2. That sounds like he'll want to side with Trip/Wes, but he can't have Trip around to screw things up for him. Since he can create a Wes/Atreyu/Rose F3 alliance, and that will give him numbers at F5, this is his best bet. Vote Trip and take over at F5.

Rose: Since she doesn't have much of a chance any any of the Chinese 1000 hells of actually winning, her best ending is F2. To do that, she needs to work with someone who will actually bring her there. That's Atreyu. She should follow his lead and collect information any way she can - stop being clueless and help make things happen.

If everyone is working to their own best advantage, Trip should join us tonight.
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Apollo
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Purely speculation...but here goes.
Trip- Trip has secured a F4 deal with Atreyu, Rose and Wes. Of course we all know about Trip's deals and he will adjust that to however suits him best. But I have to believe (at least to some degree) the other three believe in that deal. Trip's focus will be on Dan and Laurie no doubt...he needs one of them to go. Im sure if he had his pick he would want to take out Laurie because he knows he about her ties with the others (Atreyu, Rose, Wes) and she is a huge immunity threat to him. He may have to sit on that one though because I think the others will want to go Dan. I know that Dan and Rose have never got along and Dan's relationship with Atreyu has always been strained. So Trip may feel it is better to let the others make this decision just to try to appear like he is truly with them.

Atreyu-I have to think at this point that Atreyu is clued into Trip's game. I know that Atreyu and Rose are close and I think he has gotten close to Laurie as well (inspite of their differences in the past). I think Atreyu will want to vote Dan out next because as long as Dan is there Dan will remain closer to Laurie. Atreyu will want to feel secure with Rose, Laurie and Wes before he thinks about making a move against Trip...removing Dan will give him that security. The only thing that worries me about Atreyu is him being too cautious and missing his opportunity...he has one tomorrow night and he has one on Sunday. I hope he makes him move on one of them.

Rose- I think Rose will follow Atreyu and I think that will lead her toward Laurie. I know she has no love for Dan and even though Laurie and her had their problems they do have history. I really dont think Rose has a plan in the works to win but focuses more on getting a far as she can.

Laurie-Laurie has several options and Laurie has proven herself to be a more than capable player. She excells at building relationship and has proven herself as a loyal person. I think she has solid ties to Atreyu and Rose. She even has an opportunity with Wes (although I dont think she counts on that one much). I know her and Dan are a solid pair but given that they are surely being pitted against one another she will have to distance herself from Dan. Laurie does have the immunity challenge threat stacked against her but it could come in handy if she could pull off another win tomorrow night.

Dan-I am pulling for Dan big time but he has a lot stacked against him this time. I know he is a fighter though and this is not the first time he has been the target. I think Dan will focus on Atreyu and Wes the most because those are his best chances. He will work with Laurie without a doubt. Dan has a lot of ammunition to use against Trip in the form of messages and Dan will use that ammunition...but not sure it will work. I really feel if Trip isnt here tomorrow night...I may be seeing my old friend again instead. Hope I am wrong about that.

Wes- We all know Wes is as sneaky as a snake but I really think he has hitched his wagon to Trip. Especially now with Trip gaining in the unpopularity poll (which surely he is). He will want to keep Trip in the game I think and will work toward that end. Which is another reason I think the big move will happen at F5 because that will be when Trip and Wes will be the most vunerable.

All that said this is Survivor so who the hell knows, LOL. My gut tells me it will most likely be Dan coming to join us...but it could be Laurie. Praying that it is Trip though.
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Romeo
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Dan and Laurie, I think, are a tighter pair than most realize. I doubt at this late stage it would be easy for Trip to go after one of them without both of them working to turn the tables against him - that is assuming Dan isn't still sold on Trip's BS.

I think we all agree that Wes is trying to ride Trip as long as he can and then try to win the last immunity and take Rose to the end - THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR THIS GAME. I would hate that, because I would honestly probably lean towards voting Rose - again, my personal opinion on returning players. I will rooting vehemently for this not to happen.

Which brings us back to the two crucial players for this round, and seemingly, the rest of the game. Rose and Atreyu. Is Rose content just being a pawn and dragged to the end? I don't know. I feel she has some spunk in her, but I also got the sense when you were booted Max that she felt that Trip had been true to her. IF both Rose and Wes are hoping to ride with Trip until F3 - with both Wes and Trip wanting Rose at the end - then that means Atreyu really is almost forced to make a move this round or risk having waited too late.

The more I think about it, the more I think that's the case. I'm just not sold Rose or Wes have any incentive to take out Trip at F5 - Dan and Laurie do. That needs to be taken advantage of while they are still in the game.
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Apollo
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Dan and Laurie are defiantly a tight pair (of that I have no doubt) but they only have power if Atreyu and Rose utilize it...they wont. They will want that pair broken up.

There is no way Dan is buying Trip's crap...he wasn't buying it before. Dan caught on to Trip before I did.

I think Trips plan is to bring Wes to the end if possible...sure he would go Rose but I think Wes is his preference.

Wes is the wildcard because even thought I suspect he would want to go to the end with Trip, I know Wes will change his game as he sees it benefiting him the most.

I think Atreyu does want to make a move but I think he will want Dan and Laurie split up before he does it. In that situation I think Atreyu will want to keep Laurie over Dan because Atreyu has grown closer to Laurie. At F5 Atreyu knows that Rose is closer to him than Laurie and that Laurie is closer to him than Rose (at least I think he will think that). I believe that Atreyu has also managed to form some sort of working relationship with Wes as well...but I am sure that Atreyu doesn't trust that relationship as much (because hell its Wes we are talking about after all).

At F5 Atreyu will feel he has a solid 3 (in Rose and Laurie) and a possible 4 (with Wes) that is when Atreyu will feel comfortable enough to make that move (hopefully).

I will be shocked if Dan doesn't join us tonight. Mine and Dan's bond always helped as much as it hurt us...we always agreed that once one of us were gone the other would follow. I still feel that will be the case. I really hope I am wrong about this because I want my man Dan to stay in this game. He is a hell of a player and deserves to fight on...and I sincerely hope he does but I think the deck is stacked against him and the others are holding all the cards.
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Maximus
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The thing is, if Atreyu decides tonight is the night to make his move, he could easily wean Wes off the Trip Nip. He offers Wes F3 with him and Rose, giving them the majority at F5 and making it easy to break Dan and Laurie up. An F3 with Atreyu and Rose is definitely a good situation for him, because he has a shot against either one of those two, and really no shot with Trip, Laurie or Dan. Dan and Laurie should be on board for a Trip vote tonight, no matter how it gets put together, and Atreyu giving the right lip service to Laurie should keep both of them from looking for another option.
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Romeo
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Tonight will really be telling. The more time I've had to think about it, the more I think Atreyu waits a round to go after Trip - which I think he will do.

If Dan or Laurie goes, than Atreyu will try and pick up the remainder and use Rose (who has been reliant on him since Lucy's exit - they had a F3) to form a majority at F5. Going for Trip now, and rolling into a F5 with Dan and Laurie and Wes would be a lot riskier proposition for him considering Wes''s ties to both of those players. So, ideally Atreyu will vote out Dan or Laurie tonight.

Rose doesn't have to do anything but sit still. No one is targeting her, and I actually have my doubts anyone will target her at this point.

Dan and Laurie - and it is a presumption they are still a duo, after all, the game fluctuates - are most likely trying to go after Trip or Wes and pull in Atreyu and Rose. Are they good enough players to pull this off? I think so - even if it's against Atreyu's best interest. If Wes loses immunity, than that's their highest probability of surviving - Wes could be an easy target because, while he may be an easy win at F2, his presence in the game is a huge threat because all it takes is a few more immunity wins to give him all the power, and no one wants that. It would be a good sell to eliminate Wes.

Who Wes wants to target? No clue. I could see him wanting to break up Dan and Laurie, but I always got the feeling that Wes was a lot closer to Laurie than he let on. Would he move against Trip right now? Doubtful. Would he go after Atreyu? Perhaps. I gave up a long time ago trying to understand Wes's mindset.

Who does Trip want out? Y'all seem to think he will 100% try and break up Laurie and Dan. And while that very well could be the case, I wouldn't be shocked if he took it in another direction dependent on how his conversations have gone with those two in the past couple of days. I wouldn't be shocked if he tried to flip it on Atreyu to be honest.
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Apollo
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There is no way Wes wants anyone but Dan gone...Rose too. You are right Romeo Wes does feel closer to Laurie because of the 'Unlikeables' alliance (I think you and Max were both involved in that one). Wes still feels that connection to Laurie and Laurie is still exploiting that I am sure. Wes told me (Max you can probably confirm or disprove this for me) that he really wanted to get back in the game because he felt me and Dan would jump back on board with him if he was placed back in the game. Obviously that did not happen and I think that's where Wes started to harbor his ill will against me and Dan.

After your vote Romeo, Wes messages me and says he voted for you but me and him were going to have a long talk later than night. Now Wes thought he was going to call me out but I gave it back to him with both barrels and called his game for the shit it was. Explained to him why I didn't seek to return to him when he came back. The long and short Wes and I cleared the air...I really think we did...but it was too late. Wes had gone to far to back out and try to work with me at that point.

Wes will want Dan gone. Rose doesn't like Dan and will want him gone. Trip doesn't care about anyone but Trip. Atreyu has always had doubts about Dan. All three are closer to Laurie. The only way Dan doesn't join us tonight is if he wins immunity.
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Maximus
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Apollo, I hope you're wrong, but your logic is solid. Except that I don't see Wes wanting to sit next to Trip at F2, and he sees the animosity toward them from Dan and Laurie as an opportunity to cut him early.

I don't know if it will work, for the very reasons you cited - Atreyu's and Rose's dislike of Dan - but I've always felt that people can work together for a single vote even with that animosity between them. It happens so often, it's hard to argue against.

That said, I'm currently putting the odds at 3:2, Dan:Trip tonight.
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Romeo
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Romeo's Rundown Power Rankings will come later, but what are y'all's thoughts tonight? Trip or Wes still?
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Maximus
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Yes, actually, if only because now is the time for them to target each other. Although I think that Trip can still be looking at Wes as a goat, he is also going to recognize that Wes' game depends on getting him out of the way. If he thinks he can control Wes long enough - or that he has the votes of both Atreyu and Rose - he might cut Laurie tonight instead.

But here's what I think will actually happen:

Atreyu knows both Wes and Trip are unreliable, and that Laurie is good for her word. If he actually has Rose willing to run with him, I think Trip is done for tonight.
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Romeo
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Tonight, obviously, is a huge round. After tonight I think we will have a really good idea of where the game is headed.

A-LISTERS

Posted Image

I feel like he is in the best position considering his ties to Laurie and Rose. Unless some serious smear campaigning has been going on, I do not see how the numbers could turn against him. From my conversations with him, I know he is very aware of the players around him. I know he knows the game Trip is playing, so unless he feels like Trip would be a goat in the finals - which by the mood in the Jury House, could very well be the case - then I'd expect him to go after Trip tonight.

Trip obviously isn't controllable. He's got Rose presumably as someone in his back-pocket. Maybe there is temptation to go after Wes this round because of his immunity prowess - a move I wouldn't necessarily disagree with honestly given how Trip has performed in challenges.

Again, you all might not agree, but I am really, really impressed with his game thus far.

B-LISTERS

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How'd I not find this earlier? Perfect.

Trip has played a high risk, high reward game thus far and it's worked. If he survived tonight, by whatever means necessary, I highly expect him to be at the F2. If these players want Trip out, and immunity is not a factor, than he should be gone tonight. But I trust Trip knows that and has tried his damnedest to position the vote to go in another direction. Which direction? I'm not sure. I could see him making a compelling case against Atreyu or Laurie, and even Wes if he was desperate enough. Only person I know he wouldn't gun for at this point is Rose.

Posted Image

I have no qualms about Laurie's game. She would have a great shot to win if she got to the end. I'm not entirely positive where she stands in the current configuration - her relationship's with Rose and Atreyu being huge X-factors - but I am hedging they are working together at this point. She also has a great chance of winning immunity and being a little more aggressive with regards to the vote. I also think, if she is as savvy as I think she is, that she could be working WITH Trip. Never hold personal grudges, and no one would suspect after Max's tribal, that those two would compare notes and work together.

C-LISTERS

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Rose is one lucky lady. But hey, who cares? She got through the double-boot where her allies were lost and immediately became an extremely non-threatening and valuable asset. I don't see any reason why she would go home tonight, but I also see no reason, other than the importance of her vote, why she would be in charge of any move that got done tonight. To her credit, and I've since forgotten, she did kind of kick-start the targeting of Laurie back at F12 - a failed plan, but a plan, and one she rallied. She's capable, just not as capable as the players around her, or at least that's my perception. Her relationship with Wes is a huge X-factor.

Posted Image

There are no D-LISTERS at this point, and it's clear that there are some pro-Wes vibes running through the Jury right now, so I cannot completely rule him out. Again, he's played fairly well since the merge, but I also attribute that to his value as a returning player ( a huge X-factor asset) and his previous reputation. I do not think he's controlled anything, though, or implemented any of his own plans through to completion. If I were him now I'd be selling myself hard as a player who couldn't win in the end and hope a few players thought of him as a goat (true or not). I'd also pitch hard to Rose - the one person I personally think he could beat - as being two players on the outs, with the best chance of beating each other. I could also see him going home tonight because of his threat as a challenge monster. You just cannot afford him to hang around longer than need be if he is not someone you want sitting at the end.
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Romeo
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My guess is Laurie unless she wins immunity. Then it will probably be Trip, unless there's been serious slandering against Atreyu.
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Romeo
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Fallen Comrades should be interesting. I'm not sure what to expect. I hope they put some real effort into it and don't just half-ass it.
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Trip
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I just want to know what they honestly think of me and who was the one that put together the alliance to take me out. My money is on Atreyu, but it could have been Rose... or a joint effort. I also want to know why Atreyu decided to vote me out.
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Maximus
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My guess is that you're too damned convincing and might actually succeed at turning Rose, especially since he DID have agreements with both of you. You have a reputation of getting just close enough to turn people against each other. That's a reasonable thing to fear in taking you any deeper than you'd already gotten.
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