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Incoming asteroid under close watch
Topic Started: Apr 16 2009, 11:15 AM (898 Views)
Heather
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Exactly 20 years from today, an asteroid about the size of a 25-story building will come closer to Earth than the networks of communications satellites orbiting the planet.

The chance of an impact are extremely remote — only about 1 in 45,000 — but the asteroid, named Apophis, will be back. Analysis of the asteroid's orbit show it will return to Earth seven years later.

Astronomers don't yet know if Apophis' second visit will be a rendezvous or a collision, as its orbit will be bent by Earth's gravity during the 2029 flyby.

"It can't even be said for certain what side of the sun (the asteroid) will be on in," said Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst with the Solar System Dynamics group at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

Most of the rocks whizzing around Earth are too small to do damage even if they were on collision paths.

"Things much below 30 meters in size don't pose much of a threat at all since the atmosphere protects us," said Nick Kaiser, lead scientist of a new University of Hawaii asteroid-hunting project known as the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System, or Pan-STARRS.

The telescope array, funded by the Air Force Research Laboratories, combines small mirrors with massive digital cameras to image the entire sky several times a month. Pan-STARRS supplements ongoing NASA-funded efforts to survey 90 percent of near-Earth objects bigger than 140 meters, or 459 feet.

"As things get bigger, the amount of devastation goes up dramatically," Kaiser said, but so too does the length of time between occurrences.

A half-mile diameter object impacting Earth likely would cause a global catastrophe, but these events happen every couple of million years or so, Kaiser said.

The asteroid that is believed to be responsible for wiping out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago was about 10 kilometers, or 6.2 miles, in size. More recently, a rock about 50 meters, or 164 feet, exploded over an unpopulated region of Russia known as Tunguska, devastating an area tens of miles across.

As of March 31, NASA's list of so-called near-Earth objects numbers 6,191. The catalog includes 773 objects one kilometer in diameter or larger and 1,042 objects — including Apophis — classified as "potentially hazardous" to Earth, according to the agency's Near-Earth Object Program web site.

Giorgini and colleagues used the giant radar dish at the Arecibo Observatory to map Apophis in 2005 and 2006, resulting in a reprieve for Earth during the 2029 encounter. Shortly after the discovery of the asteroid in 2004, scientists had pegged the chance of a collision at 2.7 percent.

During its 2029 rendezvous, Apophis will pass about 18,000 miles from Earth — closer than the 22,300-mile-high orbits of geostationary communication satellites. The asteroid will be clearly visible in the night sky to the unaided eye — even with city lights.

Scientists don't expect to have to wait 20 years to nail down Apophis' future orbits. In 2013 and 2021 the asteroid will be about 9 million miles from Earth, close enough for radar studies.

"The existing surveys are homing in on the goal of detecting about 90 percent of the objects bigger than 1 kilometer," Kaiser said.

Pan-STARRS will help complete this survey and extend the list to objects that are about 300 meters in diameter when the four-part telescope is complete in 2013.


"These 300-meter objects deliver about 1,000 megatons of TNT equivalent, so while they don't kill everyone they would certainly give you a very bad day," Kaiser said. "It's been estimated that they would devastate an area equal in size to France. These things happen about every 70,000 years, so there's a 1-in-700 chance that one of these will collide in the next 100 years."

"If one of these is out there, then Pan-STARRS 4 will detect it and figure out exactly when it is going to hit. More likely, we will do our survey and be able to give Earth a clean bill of health — for now at least," he added.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30193410/
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Kat
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more human than Human

sooo...once it passes us the first time and is heading away, we nuke it. That way, no chance of it hitting us the 2nd time. I should work for NASA.
Everything happens for a reason, but sometimes the reason is that you're stupid and make bad decisions.
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nhranger
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I like girls with big dicks especially Kai's
the sooner a collision the better.
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http://s10.zetaboards.com/Trekdom/index/
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Trekwolf164
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Section 31
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MeliKoritsi
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L'Ιtoile du Nord

Kobra Kai
Apr 16 2009, 11:33 AM
sooo...once it passes us the first time and is heading away, we nuke it. That way, no chance of it hitting us the 2nd time. I should work for NASA.
Didn't you learn from Armegeddon that you can't shoot a nuke at an asteroid? What we need to do is find a group of roughnecks and send them to space to plant a nuke in the middle of the asteroid, because we know that will work for sure. Bruce Willis will have to make the ultimate sacrifice though, but I can live with that.



I should work for NASA
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Almighty
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Give that Roo a beer

Mrosie
Apr 16 2009, 01:19 PM
Kobra Kai
Apr 16 2009, 11:33 AM
sooo...once it passes us the first time and is heading away, we nuke it. That way, no chance of it hitting us the 2nd time. I should work for NASA.
Didn't you learn from Armegeddon that you can't shoot a nuke at an asteroid? What we need to do is find a group of roughnecks and send them to space to plant a nuke in the middle of the asteroid, because we know that will work for sure. Bruce Willis will have to make the ultimate sacrifice though, but I can live with that.



I should work for NASA
Probably about the only thing about that movie that made sense
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GCE-1701-D
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aka GalaxyClassUSSEnterpriseNCC1701D But my friends call me Darren
poor NASA will hardly even be able to complete the ISS in any decent way before the shuttles are mandated to be retired (meaning they wouldn't be able to add to the ISS anyway) their budget is very tight, and no one's willing to give them any decent funding, even the federal government hasn't promised any funding past the 2010 budget cycle, NASA's screwed, no one seems to care about space anymore
we want the old Kai! "bring sexy back, vote Classic Kai"

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:whistle:
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CaptDennyCrane
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Shat Happens
A surface detonation (what is referred to as a stand-off blast) would have virtually no effect, and depending on the density and solidity characteristics of the of the inbound, it could actually make matters worse.

You cant attack with a nuke either once it is outbound. these objects are zinging by at at around or at least 20-30K mph, and a nuke trying to first reach escape velocity, will never catch up to it on its outbound trajectory.

The only real hope is for landing multiple rocket motors onto it while inbound and far enough away, to affect its trajectory enough to where it is no longer a danger. The hard part there, is that it is not only just an inbound body - its also rotating so the devices would have to be timed as well as placed so as to not undo what any of the others are doing.
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You cant expect 110% from others, when most times, they don't expect even 90% from themselves. -- Me.
No matter how hard your day, no matter how tough your choices, how complex your ethical decisions, you always get to choose what you have for lunch.
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Almighty
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Give that Roo a beer

CaptDennyCrane
Apr 16 2009, 06:45 PM
A surface detonation (what is referred to as a stand-off blast) would have virtually no effect, and depending on the density and solidity characteristics of the of the inbound, it could actually make matters worse.

You cant attack with a nuke either once it is outbound. these objects are zinging by at at around or at least 20-30K mph, and a nuke trying to first reach escape velocity, will never catch up to it on its outbound trajectory.

The only real hope is for landing multiple rocket motors onto it while inbound and far enough away, to affect its trajectory enough to where it is no longer a danger. The hard part there, is that it is not only just an inbound body - its also rotating so the devices would have to be timed as well as placed so as to not undo what any of the others are doing.
Easier just to sacrifice Bruce Willis :thumbs:
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Heather
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Almighty
Apr 17 2009, 01:36 AM
Easier just to sacrifice Bruce Willis :thumbs:
Maybe doing that would boost the economy :allteeth:
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