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Mog Bonanza!
Topic Started: Apr 30 2008, 08:35 AM (708 Views)
Babez
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Tough
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haha.. yeah i'm very jealous of his HP



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Gamina
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Deadly Drk
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I would say if your /nin the Valor Surcoat would probably be a good piece for the enmity.

But any other time i agree with Vel. theres really no such thing as too much VIT, and especially endgame Enmity is rarly a problem for PLD's who are not /nin
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Veloxe
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Not an LS leader...but I play one in game!
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Even still I would argue the valor surcoat but that's just because I think that /NIN's gear themselves slightly wrong for what they are doing, although I do see the liking in the valor surcoat if you're one of those people who does dyna relentlessly and just didn't have CoP done because of the amount of pain in the ass it is.
Vir Subligar Fund: 3,492/8,000,000 ------ Please Donate Today!
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Gundam 00 Caramelldansen > All
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Babez
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Tough
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Well that's my opinion as a Paladin. Everyone plays their character to their liking and has their own opinons. Dynamis is fun I miss it I only did it for about a year with VS. Xarca hates them unfortuantely so I was not able to see a surcoat but hey I have the rest of my relic.



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Divinius
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Windshire Secretary... apparently...
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Actually, just like two weeks ago, they finally got another one. I think they said it was their first Surcoat in like 2 years.
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Babez
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Tough
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Yeah Gana finally got it!!! That's awesome finally haha. Yeah it's like once a year for them.. Now Zri is up thats my boy!!! Hope he gets his sooner haha



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Gamina
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Deadly Drk
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My 16 Chars with 10 marlbes each are choosing these numbers:

76300 - 76459

Good luck everyone! :D

EDIT: zomg :wacko: /exhasted

Leveling 13 new Characters to Lvl 5 = O
160 Mog Bonanza Marbles baught = O

Chances of winning:
rank 4 = 160% (may win twice)
Rank 3 = 16%
Rank 2 = 1.6%
Rank 1 = 0.16%


GOGO almost 0.2% Chance!!! :lol:
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Veloxe
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Not an LS leader...but I play one in game!
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I'll take the 10 number below that!

76300-76309!

...

What?!
Vir Subligar Fund: 3,492/8,000,000 ------ Please Donate Today!
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Divinius
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Windshire Secretary... apparently...
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Veloxe
May 17 2008, 09:06 PM
I'll take the 10 number below that!

76300-76309!

...

What?!

They made you take the remedial math classes, didn't they...
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Vorloxu
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Lip Monster Grade 42
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Gamina
May 16 2008, 10:47 PM
My 16 Chars with 10 marlbes each are choosing these numbers:

76300 - 76459

Good luck everyone!  :D

EDIT: zomg  :wacko:  /exhasted

Leveling 13 new Characters to Lvl 5 = O
160 Mog Bonanza Marbles baught = O

Chances of winning:
rank 4 = 160% (may win twice)
Rank 3 = 16%
Rank 2 = 1.6%
Rank 1 = 0.16%


GOGO almost 0.2% Chance!!!  :lol:

If the numbers have to be in the correct order your odds are a lot lower, were they specific on that though...?

I dunno where you got those percents but I had something like 1:30,000 (using some weird odds calculator) or so to win the rank 1 if the order mattered. But my math sucks so, not saying you're wrong :P

Still good luck :3 , I'll be happy with a freaking rain hat lol
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Vorloxu
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Divinius
May 17 2008, 08:37 PM
Veloxe
May 17 2008, 09:06 PM
I'll take the 10 number below that!

76300-76309!

...

What?!

They made you take the remedial math classes, didn't they...

I had to take two! :(
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Fishing 91 +5 , Cooking 95 + 2 , Other stuff... less
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Divinius
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Windshire Secretary... apparently...
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Vorloxu,May 17 2008
09:39 PM
If the numbers have to be in the correct order your odds are a lot lower, were they specific on that though...?

I dunno where you got those percents but I had something like 1:30,000 (using some weird odds calculator) or so to win the rank 1 if the order mattered. But my math sucks so, not saying you're wrong  :P

Order does matter, but the odds calculations that Gam did are correct.

Your odds calculator probably assumed a lottery with the numbers pulled "without replacement" meaning that you couldn't repeat a number in the winning combo.

In this lottery, there are 5 numbers, 0-9, but unlike a real lottery (where they pull all the balls from the SAME bin) you CAN have repeated numbers. Which makes the odds simple (but much worse than the 1/30,000 for a single ticket). Any single marble has a 1/100,000 chance of winning the grand prize.

Therefore, 10 marbles (assuming they each have a different 5-digit number) gives you 10x the chance to win, or 1/10,000 (for the grand prize).

And 100 marbles (what I have) gives you a 1/1000 chance at the best prize.

The cool part of this is that the lower rank prizes are given out for the last 4, last 3, last 2, and last single digit of the 5-digit number, so the odds of winning those prizes is 10x better for each rank.

Using that logic, if you make sure that your marbles cover every possible combination they can for the number of marbles you buy, you can brute-force winning the lower rank prizes. Put simply: always buy sequential marbles!

Basically, if you buy sequential marbles, the odds of winning break down like this:

Rank 1 Prize:
1 marble = 1/100,000
10 marbles = 1/10,000
100 marbles = 1/1000

Rank 2 Prize:
1 marble = 1/10,000
10 marbles = 1/1000
100 marbles = 1/100

Rank 3 Prize:
1 marble = 1/1000
10 marbles = 1/100
100 marbles = 1/10

Rank 4 Prize:
1 marble = 1/100
10 marbles = 1/10
100 marbles = 1/1 (you are guaranteed to win)

Rank 5 Prize:
1 marble = 1/10
10 marbles = 1/1 (you are guaranteed to win)
100 marbles = 10/1 (you are guaranteed to win 10 times)
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keycel
Easy Prey
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You guys have the correct ideal world point of veiw. In this case its like the pepsi coke contests ( that dont really exist anymore its all freaking free mp3's and crap, but back when they had 1:7 chances at winning free 20 ounce sodas) If you buy 7 soda's odds are you could win a free soda, but then again you could buy 100 soda's and not win a single one. Just like with the real lottery of 300million dollars you could buy 1,000,000 tickets increaseing your odds over everyone just too find out a 90 year old whore won buying 1 ticket. Chances are the way they have it set up with only 1500 subscribers on each server give or take 500 depending on popularity of the server; we could actually see not a single person on any server win rank 1, unless they interfer and use a system that only picks a number that was previously picked by someone else. This will be intresting to see how it plays out but 1500 lets say everyone uses the exact same reasoning behind this lottery and buys 100 tickets 100x1500 = 15,000 numbers played. I dont know the exact math seeing i just got off a 18 hour shift and i'mm balls deep in sleep but i guess i just wanted to say dont get your hopes up too much and dont be afraid if you dont have enough gil it only takes 1 to win ^^; good luck to everyone i hope you all win In this contest i plan on buying 40 tickets 10 tickets on my 4 main characters, wish me luck!
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keycel
Easy Prey
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Also this is a pretty ingenious idea to get people rehooked on this game also get at least double the mules on all servers even though each mule is only 1 dollar i would be intrested to know exactly how much they made more than they usually do because they brought this contest into play.
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Vorloxu
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Lip Monster Grade 42
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Oh that clears it up more, thanks Div ^_^

I didn't realize I could rig it to win rank 4, cause that's what I wanted at least. So I'm gonna make 6 more chars so I have 10. I have a feeling that behemoth hides are going to become very common :lol:
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